Christian Bale wins best supporting actor. Heloise predicted he will win the same award for Oscars. Natalie Portman wins SAG for actress in lead role. I don’t think so. I hope she don’t win the Oscar. Bad break for Bening.
Best cast in a motion picture: The King’s Speech
Best actor SAG winner: Colin Firth….as predicted he will win Oscar. Yes, my man Firth won.
first published at Blogcritics.org on January 30, 2011 http://blogcritics.org/video/article/heloises-academy-award-picks-and-predictions/page-1/
When I wrote this who knew we would be talking about
The King’s Sweep!
I have been watching the new buzz on the film and the true historicity of it. While the present royals are a pain in the butt to me I do love British history can’t help it. So a little revision is in order because now I predict “The King’s Sweep” on Oscar night.
The Academy Awards are still a couple of weeks away. But that does not keep the critics from making predictions. First the list of the ten films nominated for best picture this year; a short synopsis which include a few of Heloise’s predictions and the outcome-whys:
Black Swan Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
The Fighter David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
Inception Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
The Kids Are All Right Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
The King’s Speech Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
127 Hours Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
The Social Network Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
Toy Story 3 Darla K. Anderson, Producer
True Grit Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
Winter’s Bone Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Five of the ten films have also been nominated for Screen Actors’ Guild Awards (SAG) airing on January 30, 2011. The five from SAG:The King’s Speech; The Social Network; Black Swan, The Fighter, and The Kids Are All Right. My Top 10 list of films this year includes those SAG nominees and a few others not nominated. But this blog is for the Academy Awards.
The King’s Speech: This film ranked #1 on my top ten list. I pick it to take home a SAG award as well as Oscar for best picture. Why? It has everything including what Academy members look for in a film: true-tale treatment. With a total of 12 nominations it will take home at least five or more, including best picture, best actor for Colin Firth, best directing for Tom Hooper, costume design, and sound mixing. The competition gets a little stiffer in other categories.
Black Swan: The acting in Black Swan was superb. But for me the ballet and the dancing that goes with it was missing. Thus I don’t find it a strong contender for best film. Mila Kunis was overlooked as supporting for Oscar but has been nominated for SAG and could snag it. Swan wins best cinematography.
The Fighter: The fighter is a sleeper. It won’t win best picture but I predict that Melissa Leo wins Supporting Actress, Christian Bale Supporting Actor, Writing (original screenplay). The Figher made my Top 10 list.
Inception: I loved this movie. I reviewed it and heaped praise on it early on by predicting it would be nominated with a Best Picture nod. It could also be a spoiler come Academy day and may keep King’s Speech from sweeping. But it is really a long shot to win best picture. What could it win: best original score, and battle Black Swan for cinematography; win art direction; sound mixing and visual effects all highly possible. None of the cast are nominated.
The Kids Are All Right: This film made my Top 10 with its story line and acting. Three of the cast members are nominated. I don’t see it winning best picture, but I think the buzz is with Bening and she alone will win best actress in a drama. Beyond that is unpredictable IMO.
127 Hours: This is the only nomination I have not seen. I have a problem with torture and stayed away from this film. I put it on my Top 10 list, although I don’t think it has a chance of winning best picture or best actor. It is nominated for adapted screenplay along with The Social Network. But I think Network takes that one..
The Social Network: I’ve seen this film twice. The beginning is by far the best. I don’t see it upsetting SAG awards or Academy. I predict it won’t win best picture for either. Jesse Einsenberg is nominated for best actor but he will leave empty-handed I predict. He has too much competition in James Franco and Colin Firth. And besides he is the only one nominated in this film for acting. Was Justin Timberlake snubbed? What award do I see for The Social Network: best adapted screenplay. The film closely followed the book it was based on.
Toy Story 3: What a funny film. With nice toys taking up arms against sinister ones found in a daycare center. I laughed out loud to my surprise. It’s good and I can see why it was nominated. This Disney film should win best animated feature film.
True Grit: May not be one of the Coen brothers best efforts to date. It may be a make-up nomination not sure. The acting was good, but the story did not hold my interest and the tension and thrill were just not what I expected from the Coens. What can it win is a better question than what will it win?
Winter’s Bone: A dark film with an unforgettable performance by Jennifer Lawrence as the teen who searches for her druggie dad in the dead of winter. Now, if she were not going up against Annette Bening and Natalie Portman then I would say that the buzz is with her. Alas, it’s not.
Post script: I was unable to screen Biutiful with Javier Bardem. He was nominated for actor in a leading role but I don’t think he will win it this year. Costume design to Alice In Wonderland. Film editing: Tariq Anwar for The King’s Speech. Sound editing: Unstoppable, the film I enjoyed most this year. Finally, best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful (Mexico) because of Bardem, can’t wait to see his performance. That last prediction is a long shot because I have not seen any of the best foreign films nominated. But my prediction for best picture this year is not a long shot but a rather articulate film: The King’s Speech.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
- Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
- Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
- Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
- James Franco in “127 Hours”
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
- John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
- Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
- Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
- Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
Actress in a Leading Role
- Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
- Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
- Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
- Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
- Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
- Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
- Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
- Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
- Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Animated Feature Film
- “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
- “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
- “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
- “Alice in Wonderland”
Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
- “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
- “The King’s Speech”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
- “True Grit”
Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
- “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
- “Inception” Wally Pfister
- “The King’s Speech” Danny Cohen
- “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
- “True Grit” Roger Deakins
- “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
- “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
- “The King’s Speech” Jenny Beavan
- “The Tempest” Sandy Powell
- “True Grit” Mary Zophres
- “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
- “The Fighter” David O. Russell
- “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
- “The Social Network” David Fincher
- “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
- “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz
- “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
- “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
- “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
- “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Documentary (Short Subject)
- “Killing in the Name” Nominees to be determined
- “Poster Girl” Nominees to be determined
- “Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
- “Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
- “The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
- “Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
- “The Fighter” Pamela Martin
- “The King’s Speech” Tariq Anwar
- “127 Hours” Jon Harris
- “The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Foreign Language Film
- “Biutiful” Mexico
- “Dogtooth” Greece
- “In a Better World” Denmark
- “Incendies” Canada
- “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
- “Barney’s Version” Adrien Morot
- “The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
- “The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
Music (Original Score)
- “How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
- “Inception” Hans Zimmer
- “The King’s Speech” Alexandre Desplat
- “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
- “The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Music (Original Song)
- “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
- “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
- “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
- “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
- “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
- “The King’s Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
- “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
- “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
- “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
- “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
- “Winter’s Bone” Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Short Film (Animated)
- “Day & Night” Teddy Newton
- “The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
- “Let’s Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
- “The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
- “Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Short Film (Live Action)
- “The Confession” Tanel Toom
- “The Crush” Michael Creagh
- “God of Love” Luke Matheny
- “Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
- “Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
- “Inception” Richard King
- “Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
- “Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
- “True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
- “Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger
- “Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
- “The King’s Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
- “Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
- “The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
- “True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
- “Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
- “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
- “Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
- “Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
- “Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
- “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
- “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
- “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
- “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
- “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Writing (Original Screenplay)
- “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
- “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
- “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
- “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
- “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
Not sure about that this year. It seems the the top films are male-heavy contenders. And I did not see Black Swan, and really don’t plan to see it.
So where does that leave the critics? Natalie Portman starred in Black Swan, and then there is Annette Benning. And this is the year of the gays IMO. Annette is my bet. She played alongside Julianne Moore in “The Kids are All Right” it’s a good film and could easily be nominated for best picture this year.
Both women nailed the roles so my guess is that both will get nods. Hillary Swank played the lead in Convinction but don’t get the buzz about her. She does NOT have my vote either. The only other film is “Rabbit Hole” starring Nicole Kidman. The film might win something and Kidman might get a nomination but it is harder to play a gay role with a straight face than a straight role with a sad face.
Okay, it’s settled my bet is Benning for 2011.
Watched and recorded Tony Awards, have to watch the rest but the pretty Scarlett won Tony for best actress for View from the Bridge. We don’t get Broadway down here.
Oprah also wore midnight blue and spoke for Gabe Sidebe. She gave a graceful speech. But we already know who the winner is. I reviewed “An Education” because I loved Carey Mulligan’s performance and if this had not been a year of good actresses she would probably be winning.
Sean Penn announced award for Best peformance by a woman in a leading role. And the winner is…Sandra Bullock.
This was so funny because I picked her from day one. And it only steamrolled from there. She did not think she would win. But she really deserves it.
As one who has spent twelve-plus years in parochial school in Chicago, St. Anselm and Mercy CHS to be exact the one thing that Catholic-schooled children know well are the ways of the nuns and sisters. The movie Doubt portrays life in such a Catholic setting. The watch word is “strict,” not critical. Strictness is what you remember about going to Catholic school and being taught by nuns. They brooke no arguments therefore are never critical. I mean what’s there to criticize when your word is law?
While nuns may not wear the garments of criticism Heloise does share some critical doubts about Doubt. Meryl Streep is once again nominated for best actress in this little film. Viola Davis is also nominated as best supporting actress. And I can tell you Viola nearly takes nun Meryl’s habit off while they argue in a “bring it” manner on the cold snowy streets near the school her son attends.
Sister Streep is cold, calculating and critical of the priest who is also the pastor of the school. He hears confessions and says mass on Sundays. The object of his affection is a young black boy who is also one of the altar boys. He craves the attention of the priest because he is the token black student in the school. That happens in Catholic school but more often than not. The schools are typically segregated just like the public schools except that they are not housed in run-down shanties as so many black public schools in the deep South.
Streep plays spiritual foil to that other great male actor Philip Seymore Hofman. One can easily worship at his altar . He delivers another crack performance as the suspicious priest of Doubt. When the token black boy is picked on he is there to literally help him pick up the pieces that some boys have slapped to the floor.
Priest Hofman seems well, sleezy enough, but then that is not the plan. Priests aught to be above suspicion and this is the mantra of Sister Streep–we suspect you therefore we doubt you therefore you must go.
He does go but we know how that will end. We know that he will get another rectory and another chance to appear “suspicious.” We also get a peek inside the classroom of Sister Amy. She is a new, nervous, shaky teacher who cannot handle the nice little white kids in her charge. That lack of control in Catholic classrooms in my day and the day of this film is just about as rare as married priests, again doubtful.
While I have no direct experience or knowledge of priest doing wrong and wrong doings sexual or otherwise, I have followed those who have experienced this betrayal. And this is the other thing that makes this movie doubtful in my eyes–why would a mother let her son be abused knowingly? This is what Viola’s charater asks us to believe. We should not doubt that it is urgent that her son be accpeted, educated and graduated.
Doubt is a short film, not a very convincing film despite four very fine performances from the cast. Four stars would be one too many for this film. But I do recommend it. Will Meryl pull it off again? Stay tuned for my Oscar predictions.